Use Sound Reasoning

Use sound reasoning. Reasoning is the process of combining alternatives, information, and values to arrive at a decision.

Reasoning completes the sentence, “I am choosing this alternative because…“ Poor reasoning leads to poor decisions. For example, people frequently assume the upside is more likely and ignore the downside, e.g., “I’ll never get into xyz college. Therefore, I’ll spend my money on trendy clothes.”

In this video, you'll learn how a decision tree helps clarify the probabilities of various outcomes when trying to make a decision. For instance, how do basketball coaches decide what play to make next?

Choosing an alternative for an important decision, for instance, your college of choice, just because it feels right is not enough.

In this video, you learn why sound reasoning requires an explanation or rationale. We should be able to say we are choosing an alternative because it involves less risk and is better for people we care about than the other alternatives available. To back up this choice, we can articulate the alternatives considered, information taken into account (including risks), values and trade-offs considered, and method for combining all these to arrive at the chosen alternative.

Ask yourself:

• Can I explain my choice to others?
• I chose this school because it can get me the most of what I want which is... The risks are... But the offsets are...

Ask your head:

• What would it take to switch my decision to another school?
• Have I gathered enough information to feel confident in my expectations?

Ask your heart:

• Do people I trust, respect, and/or care about agree with my logic/rationale?
• Does my final logical choice feel right?

Keep in mind:

• Step away for a while and/or get some help if you start to feel paralysis by analysis.
• Don't assume there are no risks.
• Avoid the wishful thinking trap: "Because I want it, it will happen."
• Avoid making the comfortable choice without considering important risk and reward factors.

Recommendations

• Step away for a while and/or get some help, if you start to feel "paralysis by analysis".
• Don't assume there are no risks.
• Avoid the wishful thinking trap: "Because I want it, it will happen."
• Avoid making the comfortable choice without considering important risk and reward factors.